The End of MAD: America's Nuclear Supremacy, Part 1

I read an article by an ex-Rand Corporation analyst Benjamin Schwarz in the January issue of The Atlantic. It basically argued that with the erosion of Russia's nuclear arsenal and continuous improvements to the US arsenal, the Cold War foundation of strategic stability through the prospect of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) was now at an end.

For those of our readers who are a little rusty on their Nuclear weapons strategy, basically how MAD works is that neither side dares to launch a first strike against the other. This is because there are enough nuclear warheads in the opponent's arsenal to survive any first strike which of course means a devastating second strike can be launched in retaliation against the aggressor. For years this strategic condition underpinned stability within the superpower rivalry between the US and the USSR.

What has changed since the end of the Cold War and the bi-polar order which disciplined great power conflict and rivalry, has been the preponderance of American power in what some have called a unipolar system with the United States as hegemon. This all pretty old news I admit, however Schwarz's article is the first that I've seen to suggest that the logic or order of MAD is now in jeopardy.

The reasons for the erosion of MAD are to be found in the respective decline and improvement in Russia's and the United State's nuclear and technological capabilities. Russia's arsenal is a fraction of it's size in 1990 (appx 3,800 warheads and forecast to decline to 500), and more importantly has not been maintained or upgraded. The Russian strategic forces lack the funds and resources to maintain readiness and technological capacity, such that the traditional strengths of the old USSR such as the nuclear ballistic missle submarine fleet have deteriorated markedly. Much of the sub fleet is permanently in port thereby eroding their crews' skills while also being highly vulnerable to attack.

Meanwhile the US arsenal while also smaller (5,200 warheads appx) than its Cold War levels is however more effective due to improvements in technology. The technological improvements to US forces since 1990 have given it a tremendous edge over any major power. New missile technology has increased accuracy thereby requiring a smaller of number of warheads to ensure successful strikes while new satellites and sensors increase the ability to find targets. Advanced technology as seen in the B2-Stealth Bomber, Sea Wolf class nuclear submarines, and GPS satellite guided munitions have given the US a capability edge over all rivals not seen since the peak of relative American power in 1945. Military and strategic analysts conducting simulated wargames conclude that the US could prevail in a conflict against any nuclear rivals by wiping out their entire arsenals in a first strike.

What of China one might ask? Despite the emergence of China as the next superpower rival to the US, at present and for the forseeable future, its military and strategic nuclear capabilities will remain far behind that of the US. The Chinese nuclear arsenal is even smaller than that of Russia's at appx 2,000 warheads, with only 18 warheads capable of striking the continental USA.